Beware a fall in Gold

For months The Technical Report subscribers have been avoiding long positions in gold. We recently took a short position in SLR because it was making a rising wedge pattern. Gold in US dollars has been going sideways in no man's land.....until recently. It has now given us a clear downward lead. Beware the next leg down in the gold price - especially if it closes below $1600. The chart pattern is making a clear inverted or upside down flag pattern and the downside target is $1450. The opposite trade would be to hold US Dollars. Below is a chart of the gold price.

All best for Christmas to all subscribers and blog readers.

From Short to Long

Its been a month since our last blog entry. In that time the global markets have been very unsteady, but over the past couple of days, the Australian and global markets have broken through some resistance levels in anticipation of the European crises coming to a satisfactory close.

In The Technical Report last week we told subscribers that the market was offering a number of opportunities based on bullish reversal breakouts and in particular, in a large number of flag patterns.

For The Technical Report notional portfolio, we entered VBA, ASX, ANZ and CTX.

You read more about it in our TRIAL PDF
Visit us at http://www.stpt.com.au/ OR at http://www.thetechnicalreport.com/

We Remain Short

Readers of The Technical Report (free copy here) have been Short BSL, ILU and WBC. We have avoided getting into several big wealth killers on the ASX, like LYC because of our use and understanding of sentiment indicators which alerted us to the impending fall in LYC right back when it was flirting with the $2 level.

We are looking for BHP to re-test $34, CBA to test $40 and we are watching to see if support holds for MYR, QAN, HVN, FMG and many other stocks. Beware if you hold FMG. Support is at $5.60 and it has been breached in intra-day trading today.

Overseas, the CAC40 is still likely to fall all the way back to 2500, the FTSE is likely to fall down to 4150 and the DOW will probably test 9800 followed by 9000, if and when Greece defaults and the contagion of bank losses crosses the Atlantic.

If you'd like to stay out of bad trades and start getting into some good ones, join us at The Technical Report today.

Download a free report

For weeks now members of The Technical Report have been watching European and domestic markets make their way lower. The DAX reached its target and is set to go even lower. The FTSE and the CAC are on their way lower, the XJO and the DOW are also in sell off mode.

Download the latest Technical Report here FOR FREE! See what I have been telling subscribers.

The DOW - support is at 9800. The CAC - support is at 2500. The FTSE - support is at 4150.

Many major Australian stocks are making bearish patterns, testing support levels, showing signs of underlying weakness and offering Shorting opportunities. Don't be Long in this market. Don't think yourself smarter than the rest of the market and act like a contrarian. That kind of arrogance always gets punished.

In time we will show subscribers where and when to buy again.

Tale of two markets

The Australian market has limited trading opportunities at present. Stocks like QAN and HVN are bouncing along their support lines and not looking strong. A stock like SFR remains stuck in its sideways band. But we can find opportunities for both bull and bear traders. One is a head and shoulders pattern in a stock which you wouldnt believe was making this pattern and the other stock is a perennial underperformer making a bullish flag pattern. Their charts are shown below.

If you would like to find potential trading opportunities like this week in week out, join us at The Technical Report.

  



Volatile markets equal Shorting opportunities

This past week many technical support levels were smashed in stocks such as BHP, WPL and RIO. Shorting any of these stocks since the last Tuesday just gone would have made you a profit. But what techniques can you use to Short the market with safety?

I use my personally devised Range-Change-Ratio technique (RCR). It is a way of monitoring the tipping point in stocks through price and volume activity to see when bulls out number the bears or vice versa. It provides a level of safety in the market becasue of the 5 rules it employs. This week we used it to short WOR and UGL. We made profits of $3500 and $2500 respectively.

An article outlining my RCR technique was published in Daryl Guppys newsletter early this year. If you would like to learn how to trade bullish and bearish markets using traditional technical analysis or my own techniques, sign up to The Technical Report today.

The Technical Report Performance to date

The Technical Report has only been running approxmiately 6 weeks and our notional portfolio is up 7.5%. Our annual target is a minimum return of 50% trading Australian equities, CFDs and warrants.

We exited ILU for a profit of $5300 on Friday. If you'd like to know more or to subscribe click here.

Coming up on our radar is a fall in the gold price over the next 6 - 12 months and a rise in the US dollar. If you'd like to know what evidence we are using to take this view, feel free to subscribe to The Technical Report and get special reports like this one sent to you throughout the year.

The Technical Report

Download an abridged version of our report from the week ending Friday 8 July. Click here

Please note however, that since then we have added several new stocks to our notional portfolio, but this information is only available to current subscribers.

To subscribe click here

To get a feel for our trading style, check out our old blog from several years ago, when we set ourselves the challenge of publically verifying our approach. Go here to see the blog.

On the radar....July 13

There are opportunities to trade potentially lucrative stocks in all markets. Here is a sample that we bring to your attention today and which we will look at again in a weeks time.

Visit us at http://www.thetechnicalreport.com/ or at http://www.stpt.com.au/

On the radar....

The markets have been in the hands of Bernanke and Papandreou for the past few weeks. I wonder what lies ahead for our market. For example, why is 4670 an important level to watch on the ASX200 chart?

To find out the answer to this question and to understand why are we in WEB, SGM and looking to Short NCM check out our newsletter here. You have the first four weeks to make up your mind if you want to stay with us. If not, no worries. We happily provide a full refund within the first 4 weeks.

This month we have also written an article on Anchoring and shown you how this trader bias can be applied to the current XJO chart.

Have you seen my bail out package? No, what does it look like? A blank cheque.

The slippery side of GOLD

The gold price in US dollars is making a great looking trend. At the moment the price is moving sideways in no man's land between trend line support (at around $1450) and overhead resistance (at $1550....the all time high is $1573, but $1550 has been hit several times and rejected by the market).

This is not good news for our major gold stocks. Holders of NCM better know what they are going to do when support at $36 breaks down. See chart below. The black circled areas show where support / resistance was found at $36 in the recent past.

Don't forget to look for us on the web - http://www.thetechnicalreport.com/ or http://www.stpt.com.au/

Ebook - updated edition

The book, Simple Tactics, Profitable Trading, second edition will be out soon. If you would like to be notified of its availability, simply email us support@stpt.com.au with the word EBOOK in the title and we will notifiy you of its availability. If you notify us of your interest, the book will be available to you for only $15.00. It will sell for double that via our website.

If you would like to read a free chapter from our first edition, click here - it is Chapter Two.

From The Technical Report, we will be watching these two stocks (shown below) and applying our DEMAC technique to them. If you would like to know the names of these stocks sign up for a 12 month subscription to The Technical Report OR if you would like to learn our DEMAC technqiue, buy our CD presentation of it here.

We are short BSL

An example of our trading style is our current Short position in Bluescope Steel (BSL). The stock has been sideways for an exceptionally long time and has recently broken down through support. Using traditional technical analysis techniques, it gives us a downside target of 50 cents.

To learn more check out The Technical Report

The Technical Report

Welcome to The Technical Report blog. It accompanies The Technical Report weekly newsletter (to read more about it, click here or to download the trial copy in PDF, click here)

The Technical Report is produced by STPT Coaching, which is a technical analysis research company and a trading psychology consultancy. We trade the Australian stock exchange but many of the technical techniques we privately develop are applicable to both FOREX and International markets.

If you would like to see us implement traditional technical analysis OR to see us implement our privately developed trading techniques in real time markets, stay tuned to this blog and sign up for The Technical Report newsletter.